from the congressional budget office
On that basis, CBO estimates that ARRA’s policies
had the following effects in the second quarter
of calendar year 2011 compared with what would have
occurred otherwise:
They raised real (inflation-adjusted) gross domestic
product (GDP) by between 0.8 percent and
2.5 percent,
Lowered the unemployment rate by between
0.5 percentage points and 1.6 percentage points,
Increased the number of people employed by between
1.0 million and 2.9 million, and
Increased the number of full-time-equivalent jobs by
1.4 million to 4.0 million, as shown in Table 1.
(Increases in FTE jobs include shifts from part-time to
full-time work or overtime and are thus generally
larger than increases in the number of employed
workers.)
The effects of ARRA on output peaked in the first half
of 2010 and have since diminished, CBO estimates.
The effects of ARRA on employment and unemployment
are estimated to lag slightly behind the effects on output;
CBO estimates that the employment effects began to
wane at the end of 2010 and continued to do so in the
second quarter of 2011. Still, CBO estimates that, compared
with what would have occurred otherwise, ARRA
will raise real GDP in 2012 by between 0.3 percent
and 0.8 percent and will increase the number of people
employed in 2012 by between 0.4 million and
1.1 million.
the stimulus worked, it just wasnt big enough, perhaps since half of it was tax cuts for you and I
Lefty